Every election cycle, political campaigns spend millions of dollars trying to reach Black voters. And every election cycle, too many of them make the same mistake by starting with the assumption that “Black voters” are an audience. They aren’t. They are millions of people with different lives, different ambitions, different disappointments, and very different reasons for voting, or deciding not to.
That distinction is particularly important in Texas right now. For anyone trying to win an election there, the most important question is not which candidate Black voters prefer. It is whether they will care enough to show up at all. That is a very different strategic problem.
Black voters may overwhelmingly prefer James Talarico to Ken Paxton. But support does not automatically equal enthusiasm, and enthusiasm does not automatically equal turnout, because many Black Texans believe Democrats take their votes for granted, and that should change the way campaigns think about Black political engagement.
The traditional political playbook tends to start with demographics: Black. Female. 35-54. Houston. But demographic targeting only tells you who someone is. It doesn’t tell you what moves them.
Two very different voting blocks illustrate this problem: One includes voters with a strong affinity for Jasmine Crockett. They are politically engaged and highly attuned to whether Black political power is respected. Many will likely still vote Democratic. But that does not mean their enthusiasm automatically transfers to another candidate. For them, the issue is trust. They don’t need to be reminded that Republicans are the alternative. They need to see who will have power in a Democratic coalition, if their voices will matter, and where a candidate is willing to spend political capital and fight for them.
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